Ideologues and vested interests impede good policymaking

A letter-writer reacts to the suggestion by the Economist that poor American consumers gain more from cheap imports than they would if imports were restricted and America produced the same goods:

Being able to buy a Chinese-made 50-inch TV when you work by flipping hamburgers for the minimum wage may be more efficient than working in a factory on wages where you can only afford the 30-inch American-made model. But Donald Trump’s voters weighed up factors that many economists and your newspaper often downplay: the marginal utility of consumer goods in a rich society, the distribution of wealth and a sense of self-worth. The medium through which they channelled their anxiety may be flawed, but their message is clear. Trump's triumph, Prof Diomidis Spinellis, the 'Economist' dated 19 November

Exactly so; countries as a whole benefit from free trade in that the benefits to the economy more than offset the losses, even if the losers - those whose jobs become obsolete - are fully compensated. The problem is that most of the gains are going to the wealthy, and the losers aren't being compensated.

One of the great advantages of the Social Policy Bond approach is clarity about ends and means. Free trade isn't an end in itself: it's a means to an end: the improved well-being of society. A bond regime targeting poverty or income levels would ensure adequate compensation to the losers from free trade (which could take the form of subsidies to struggling companies or laid-off individuals, or enhanced re-training opportunities). Or it could restrict trade, perhaps temporarily, if that were to better meet society's long-term income goal. Such measures would be heresy to the free trade ideologues, but in a bond regime it is outcomes that matter, not ideology.

We see similarly non-outcome driven approaches in other policy areas, where ideology or vested interests get in the way of rational, welfare-enhancing policies. Healthcare in the US is one example, where the interests of insurance companies and blind resistance to anything that could be called 'socialist' do so much to blight the security of even middle-class Americans.

Media news

Greg Bearup has written about the genesis of the Social Policy Bond idea, and applications of the non-tradeable version of it in Australia, in the cover article in the Weekend Australian Magazine, dated 10 October. If you cannot see the story on the WAM site, a pdf of the article (missing a picture or two) can be downloaded here.

Where we're at

How are Social Policy Bonds doing?

It's about 27 years since they first entered the public arena (see here). In that time the Social Policy Bond idea has won praise from distinguished economists (point 8 here), but no Social Policy Bonds have actually been issued.

It's not all doom and gloom though. There is widespread, though belated, recognition now that rewarding better performance in the public sector is a good thing, and non-tradeable variants of Social Policy Bonds are being issued on a trial basis in the UK, US, Australia and Israel. They are also being considered in New Zealand (see here for a short video discussion).These bonds have various names including Social Impact Bonds, Social Benefit Bonds and Pay for Success Bonds.

I have my reservations about them, which I've expressed here and here. Essentially, their being non-tradeable drastically reduces the scope - in breadth and time horizon - of the goals that can be considered. They favour existing service providers, and their administrative costs are likely to be relatively higher than Social Policy Bonds. As well, because they aren't openly traded, they generate no price information that could be extremely useful to policymakers. Nevertheless, these bonds do reward greater efficiency in achieving their limited objectives, and they might well improve on current policy where that is particularly inefficient. They could therefore be a handy (and though I am hesitant to say so, necessary) first step toward a fully-functioning Social Policy Bond.

That said, I'd disappointed that, as far as I am aware, the backers of all the Social Impact Bonds being issued have been, or will be, governments. I'd have much preferred the private sector, in the form of non-governmental organizations or philanthropists, take the lead. The bonds being issued are intended to help vulnerable or disadvantaged people and it seems regrettable in today's climate that the other beneficiaries of taxpayer funds will be financial intermediaries who will take their cut of the transaction costs. Indeed, it seems these bond issuers will benefit whether or not the bonds work as intended. If the bonds do work as intended, that's fine, but we should remember that they are an experiment and, it would be a shame if they come to be seen as a means by which the financial services sector syphons off yet more cash from taxpayers while contributing nothing (at best) to wider society. The other danger is that if Social Impact Bonds fail - and especially if they do so while the brokers benefit - they could discredit the Social Policy Bond concept. For many reasons, therefore, I hope they succeed....

Progress in development

Social Policy Bond principles are slowly gaining acceptance. Here is the Economist writing about trends in development aid:

Now donors are trying a new approach: handing over aid only if outcomes improve. “Cash on delivery” sees donors and recipients set targets, for example to cut child mortality rates or increase the number of girls who finish school, and agree on how much will be paid if they are met. ... In cash-on-delivery schemes, recipients choose their own paths towards their targets, subject only to basic rules, such as respecting human rights. ... By setting and measuring targets, cash-on-delivery donors hope to spur healthy competition. It’s not what you spend, 'the Economist', 23 May

For my thoughts on applying the Social Policy Bond idea to development click here. 

The book: Kindle version

The definitive book on Social Policy Bonds, about 60 000 words in length, is now available on Kindle for approximately US$4.00.