Let policy evolve

One reason why solutions to our social and environmental problems are slow to appear is that we do not let evolution operate:

The defining features of an evolutionary system are variation generation (e.g., a new cell phone design, a new word), inheritance (characteristics are passed on through time), and differential success (some variants do better than others). It doesn’t matter if some new variants were produced with intent, or of there are no gene-like things involved. (My emphasis.) Mark Vellend on Everything Evolves (interview), 11 August 2025

Our current policymaking regimes do not systematically favour the most efficient policies. One reason is that time horizons are too short; in democracies particularly, any gains from implementing effective policies are likely to be way beyond the time horizons of most politicians. Well-meaning public servants will do their best, but they are unlikely to advocate for policies over which their department has no remit. As well, while they would prefer to see their most effective policies adopted, they typically do not benefit financially when that happens. 

Another reason, is that, as Stephen van Evera writes: 'states widely fail to evaluate their own ideas.' Citing Aaron Wildavsky, van Evera writes:

Evaluation promotes innovation and change. This threatens the jobs and status of incumbent members of the organization. Hence incumbents often seek to hamper or prevent evaluation and to punish evaluators. These incumbents tend to dominate the organization's decision making, so evaluation finds itself with stronger enemies than friends within the organization. Hence self-evaluation is often timid and ineffective. 

A Social Policy Bond regime would be different. It would not take existing organisations as given, and it would aim for outcomes that can be achieved only in the long term. (Because they would be tradable, people could benefit by holding the bonds for a short period.) Importantly, bondholders would have the time horizon and incentive to experiment with new approaches, choosing to follow only those that are most promising. For our most urgent national and global challenges, I believe it's essential that we take the long-term view and put in place a regime that encourages diverse policy approaches, and then selects only those that are most promising.