This graph appeared recently in the Financial Times:
I'm skeptical about the targeting of greenhouse gas emissions (see here) but as that has been almost the entire focus of the climate change debate, the graph seems to imply that:
- People share my skepticisms, or
- Nobody really cares.
There is another possibility though, and that is that there is a massive gap between what most people want to see and what governments implement: between the stated goals of policies and outcomes. This applies to many other social and environmental goals, especially those that can be achieved only in the long run, and whose achievement requires a mix of approaches, the most efficient of which cannot be known in advance.
So: almost nobody wants to see a nuclear war, yet the probability of a nuclear exchange hasn't vanished and may be increasing. Non-nuclear conflict, disease, crime, illiteracy, environmental depredations, extreme poverty...these social and environmental problems remain large and, in many areas, are growing despite our undoubted ingenuity, noble aspirations and effort put in by many individuals, government and non-government agencies and others.
In my view, this disconnect is a result of the inability of any conventional organisation - government or not - to cope with such society's complexity and long lead lines. My suggestion: we should be targeting outcomes, and rewarding people who achieve them, however they do so. Social Policy Bonds are one way in which this could be done.
For more about the Social Policy Bond concept see here. From that page there are links to its application to climate change, conflict, crime, literacy and the environment. For a new sort of organisation that could arise to help achieve targeted outcomes see here.
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