11 January 2021

How better to solve our global problems?

At the very outset (pdf), I envisaged that Social Policy Bonds could be used to solve global problems, because that is where their advantages over other policy mixes would be most marked. These advantages arise because:

  • Current global solutions are lacking. Take climate change, or the possibility of nuclear war. There are many initiatives being undertaken by well-meaning, hard-working people in many institutions worldwide. But measured in terms of outcomes - reduced probability of adverse climatic events, or nuclear war - the results of all this endeavour are unimpressive.

  • Under a bond regime, resources can readily shift to where they will do most good. 'Good' being measured as objectively as possible, with such tools as Quality Adjusted Life Years. Consider just two areas into which huge quantities of human ingenuity are concentrated: financial trading and marketing. The financial rewards from excelling in these activities far outweigh those who that accrue to people involved in efforts to diminish the prospects of, say, violent political conflict. The mismatch between what could be done, and what is being done can be seen by considering the co-existence of both neglected tropical diseases and high-frequency trading.

  • A mix of diverse solutions are required. No single solutions, of the type favoured by governments or supra-national bodies, are going to solve humanity's global problems. We need a mix of diverse, adaptive solutions, which vary continually with both space and time - always with the aim of being maximally efficient. Governments can specify, and raise funds for, the ends of such solutions, not their means.

  • Most global problems require long-term solutions; they extend beyond the lifetime of individuals, corporations or government bodies. But people today receive their income from such organisations, and organisations have goals that differ from those of humanity. Their prime goal, after their idealistic beginnings, often becomes self-perpetuation, which can not only be inconsistent with humanity's goals - it can even conflict with them.

For all these reasons, I believe Social Policy Bonds offer the best hope for humanity. Our goals are more stable than those means of achieving them currently thought to be optimal. Our governments are good at raising revenue, and they can articulate society's goals, but they are not very good at solving complex problems or thinking for the long term good of society, even when that is their goal. There is no shortage of human ingenuity or other resources, but we do need incentives to divert such resources into areas where they can do most good. Social Policy Bonds, backed by national governments and issued by a global body (it could even be an private-sector organisation) are, in my view, the best way forward. I cannot think of a better alternative.


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