Transcending narrative

We waste a lot of energy trying to identify the root causes of social and environmental problems; energy that would be better spent trying to solve those problems. With climate change we think we know that greenhouse gas emissions are the culprit: it's scientifically plausible, but not certain. It is even less certain that we have correctly identified all the greenhouse gases, and correctly weighted them according to their long-term impact on the climate. And it's even less certain that reducing these emissions will stop climate change or reduce its negative impacts. (And which of those options do we actually want?) This uncertainty, or the appearance of uncertainty, is probably the reason that, despite years of apocalyptic rhetoric, high-profile conferences, celebrity calls to action and all the rest, nothing has been done to curb greenhouse gas emissions. I quote myself:

We can, though, be more certain about whether we really care about the threat of climate change. And the answer is a resounding: not really. Lots of conferences, exhortations, subsidies for renewables (though not as many as for fossil fuels - see below), stirring rhetoric and doom-laden prognostications. Some change? Sure, at the margins. But meaningful results? No, no, no.

We'd get more traction, I believe if, instead of focusing on what probably are, but might not be the causes of climate change, we clarify exactly what we want to achieve in regards to the climate and its effects, and then reward people who achieve it.

Trying to identify root causes is at least as dangerous when we're talking about human conflict. After a several chapters on the structure of the mammalian brain, Professor Alex Rosenberg sums up:

If the historical record is anything more than a chronology, it’s not verifiable. It’s wrong. And wrong in the most dangerous way, the way pretty much guaranteed to ensure that the mayhem of the last 5,000 years of recorded history will continue into the future. Narrative history is not verifiable because it attributes causal responsibility for the historical record to factors inaccessible to the historian. And they’re inaccessible because they don’t exist. The causal factors narrative history invokes—the contentful beliefs and desires that are supposed to drive human actions—have all the reality of phlogiston or epicycles. So narrative history, even at its best, is just wrong about almost everything besides the chronologies it reports. How History Gets Things Wrong, Alex Rosenberg, October 2018

More succinctly: 

By and large, the historian will get the kind of facts he wants. History means interpretation. EH Carr, quoted in History according to EH Carr, Helen Carr, 'New Statesman', 8 May

So what does all this mean? This: trying to identify the root causes of a social or environmental problem might not be helpful. With climate change, it's (currently) impossible to identify the root causes sufficiently to convince enough people to solve the problem. The lack of obvious root causes serves as an excuse for inaction. It's possible also that even if we can correctly and apodictically remove root causes, doing so might not be the best way of solving a problem.

In the social sphere the real or spurious identification of root causes is even more dangerous. The debates never end. Clair Wills writes about Northern Ireland:

Who began the killing? At root, arguments about the genesis of the Troubles are arguments about responsibility for murder, and that’s one reason it has proved so hard to disentangle history from blame in accounts of Northern Ireland since the late 1960s. No Waverers Allowed, Clair Wills, 'London Review of Books', dated 23 May

How about we take another seemingly intractable goal - Middle East Peace - and let a coalition of motivated investors decide whether or not trying to identify root causes is the most efficient way of achieving it. Our current political systems fail to do that, but Social Policy Bonds could succeed where they fail

Issuers of Social Policy Bonds targeting peace in the Middle East would first have to define what they mean by peace. They could do this in consultation with politicians, technical experts and, crucially, ordinary people. Once achieved, peace should be sustained for a period of, say thirty years. Because Social Policy Bonds are tradeable, holders would benefit by doing what they can to achieve such a long-term goal, then selling their bonds  once they have seen their value rise as a result of their efforts. The investors in the bonds would all be animated by the fact that the important thing is to solve the problem of conflict in the Middle East - and not to try to work out how it started.

In general, it might be a good idea to look for root causes of social or environmental problems, but it might be more efficient - and generate more buy-in - instead to aim directly for the outcome. Trying to understand fully the relationships between cause and effect may be a waste of time, or actually delay and impede the achievement of our social and environmental goals. Outcomes are more important and less inflammatory than history, whether we are talking about dealing with climate change or ending war. Social Policy Bonds would focus all of our attention and ingenuity on achieving our goals and less on what policymaking today seems to be all about: blaming the other side.