When people say that the Social Policy Bond idea is unrealistic and I think of the decades that I've been trying to promote it with little success, I need only remind myself of the grotesque, disastrous ways in which policy is currently made to remind myself that the bonds do actually have a contribution to make.
For example: discount rates. Geoff Mann writes:
The rates at which we currently practice discounting mean that the long-term future of humanity, the living world, and the planet itself is not metaphorically but literally valueless. The price of tomorrow, Geoff Mann, reviewing Discounting the Future: The Ascendancy of a Political Technology by Liliana Doganova, 'New York Review of Books', issue dated 23 October 2025
As Mr Mann writes, the choice of discount rate that policymakers use can hardly be overstated.
The 7 percent discount rate - commonly used by the Trump administration...- means that our welfare today should be valued at six times that of people in 2050. ... We have unilaterally indebted future generations (and the rest of life on earth) to the present, and the discount rate is the interest we make them pay on a debt we have fabricated out of nothing but our own narcissistic accounting.
'Motivated reasoning' is 'a cognitive bias that influences people to favor their existing beliefs, affects decision-making and critical thinking.' It seems to me that using a discount rate to evaluate the long-term impact of policies, and which discount rate to use, are a form of motivated reasoning. If people in government or elsewhere wants a project to go ahead, they'll choose a high discount rate; if not, a low discount rate.
Most democratic governments have a short time horizon, so that long-term goals, such as the survival of humanity can optionally be valued at almost nothing when it suits their purpose. A high discount rate is one way in which policies are made that would be unpopular if people knew the facts. The opacity and sheer length and tedium of the policymaking process are others. All this means that only powerful and already-wealthy interests can afford to follow and influence the process. Currently, policies that have long-term implications are a by-product of politicians' numerous short-term calculations. The results are plain to see: at the global and national levels, a despoiled physical and social environment and a growing potential for military conflict. I don't believe that most people would choose these outcomes, and that is why I advocate that our long-term goals need to be expressed in terms that ordinary people can understand so that we can, if we wish, participate in choosing and prioritising them.
A Social Policy Bond regime would begin with broad goals that are meaningful to ordinary people: the over-riding goal would be the survival of humanity. Precise definitions would be the subject of debate and discussion between experts and the public. National goals could include a healthy population, a cleaner environment and reduced crime. All would have to be sustained before people would be rewarded for achieving them: the goals would all be long term in nature - a contrast to the wild and deadly short-term thinking that permeates the current policymaking environment.
