What should policymakers do when they face a challenge where the evidence appears to indicate a huge, urgent problem - but some purport to be convinced that it's not a real problem and doesn't require any action? I'm thinking here of climate change, but the same conundrum can apply to other challenges. Politics always implies trade-offs, and any attempt to solve a slow-moving, long-term problem will mean that other demands for government funds must go unsatisfied. So it's perhaps inevitable - at least in countries whose citizens' views count - that governments will do what they can to postpone taking effective action. Greenhouse gas emissions have been the focus of policies aimed at dealing with climate change and it's fair to say that the aggregate effect has been nil:
'Climate activism became a big public cause about halfway along this graph. Notice any effect?' From Riding the Climate Toboggan, John Michael Greer, 6 September 2023
The policymaking conundrum is a genuine one. Even for politicians who believe that climate change is happening and that we need to address it, the temptation instead to fund health, education and housing and other short-term social needs must be almost irresistible. We could, of course, fund yet more research with the aim of proving beyond all doubt that anthropogenic climate change is happening and that we must do something about it, but some would say that's already being done and that the interest groups opposed to, for example, cutting back on greenhouse gas emissons will always be able generate enough doubt in the minds of the public to ensure that their business can carry on as usual.
So what can those policymakers who are convinced that climate change is real and urgent do? One approach would be to issue Climate Stability Bonds. The market price of the bonds would embody investors' continous assessments as to the likelihood and magnitude of climate change, and the costs of efforts to deal with it effectively. As such, governments would need take no action beyond articulating society's desired climate outcomes and providing the funding necessary to reward investors for achieving these outcomes. There's a lot more, of course, and there are links to my work on the bonds here, but the important point here is that regardless of whether climate change is happening; regardless of whether enough people believe it's happening, Climate Stability Bonds would stimulate the most efficient ways of achieving our climate goals.
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