Peace: the long view

Financial incentives aren't going to prevent terror groups from killing civilians of a different persuasion. They're too far gone for that. But that fact doesn't undermine the workings of Middle East Peace Bonds or World Peace Bonds.

It's true that we are unlikely to be able to deflect a terrorist who's been brought up from birth to hate members of a different religion, sect or ideology, from murderous intent with some cash payment. It is, however, possible, though still unlikely, to prevent him or her acting on that intent. But it's far more likely that if bonds had been issued targeting sustained peace in the Middle East (say), that such a person would not exist. A long-term peace strategy, of the sort currently pursued by well-intentioned but under-resourced groups could not only try to staunch the conditioning of schoolchildren and set up alternatives to the hate-filled media that is often a precursor to war, but would have the incentives and resources to do so effectively.

Most likely, such an approach would need to be taken in parallel with others, including strong defences, controls on weaponry, more inter-faith dialogue and other trust-building exercises. The reasons for applying the Social Policy Bond concept which, at its heart, is about using financial incentives are that:

• Once bonds have been issued there would be no uncertainty about policy changes, so investors in the bonds would be sure that, if successful, they would be rewarded; 
• Given the long-term vision, a wide range of possible approaches could be researched and tried and, if promising, implemented and refined. The bonds would reward only the most successful approaches and, in contrast to current policy, ensure that failing approaches are terminated. 

So, yes, people are right to be sceptical that fanatical ideologues can be dissuaded from killing people by a some pecuniary reward. But once a system of incentives is in place, all types of people could work towards countering hateful ideologies, promoting the benefits of tolerance, and creating the conditions for peace. The relevant question here is less 'could it work?', that 'is it more likely to work than the current array of (in my view) failing approaches?'