Greenhouse gas emissions: we're not actually doing anything to reduce them

Here, as reported in the current Economist, are some grounds for optimism about curbing global emissions:

• 'China understands the need to decarbonise and is investing massively in solar and wind.'
• 'The second-biggest emitter, America, has taken a green turn under Mr Biden.'
• 'Brazil has sacked a rainforest-slashing president;'
• 'Australia has ditched a coal-coddling prime minister.'
• 'Nearly a quarter of emissions are now subject to carbon pricing.'
  
• 'In polls of 12 rich countries...the share of respondents who said [climate change] was a "major threat" rose in every country except South Korea, where it was already high.'

I'm in the happy intellectual position of not having to advocate for or against greenhouse gas emissions, because I think the priority is to decide on those climate-related outcomes we want to see, then rewarding people for achieving them, however they do so. But since emissions are the bandwagon onto which everyone has climbed, what's happening to them is an indicator of how serious we are about the climate. It sounds good so far doesn't it? All those positive trends. But we shall get a better picture if I just repost (I first posted these on 7 September) this graph and caption from John Michael Greer's blog: 

'Climate activism became a big public cause about halfway along this graph. Notice any effect?'

It's the outcomes that are important and it's clear that, despite the singular focus on greenhouse gases, we're not actually achieving any reductions in the rate at which they're emitted. It's a familiar story: we target surrogate indicators; things that current science tells us will influence a target variable, rtaher than the variable itself. In this instance, greenhouse gas emissions, rather than climate change (or the negative impacts of climate change), and we're not even succeeding at that.

Here's a better idea: let's not assume the questions about the causes of climate change have been definitively answered. Let's also decide on what combination of goals we wish to achieve. And then reward the sustained achievement of these goals. I have written innumerable papers and blog posts about applying the Social Policy Bond principle to climate change. Links to papers can be found here, and this blog can be searched for relevant posts.