Peace in the Middle East

Who wants it? Ordinary people, mostly. It's difficult, though, for them to express that preference. We're all susceptible to anger and impulse, to propaganda and, especially, emotional television pictures of conflict, and it doesn't help that the financial and status incentives are overwhelmingly on the side of conflict. The arms sellers, the men of (so-called) religion, the state and non-state militias: all have their own reasons for stoking conflict that follow logically from the premisses by which they live. What's missing are countervailing incentives: the unspoken and - in parts of the Middle East, unsayable, on pain of persecution - wishes of ordinary people to make something of the lives and those of their family members. That's where Middle East Peace Bonds could enter the picture. Ordinary people in and outside the Middle East, perhaps following initial contributions from philanthropists, could set up a fund to be used for the redemption of the bonds. The bonds could aim to achieve a sustained period of peace, defined and verified objectively. It would be up to bondholders to devise and investigate the multitude of possible ways in which conflict can be avoided. They would have incentives to deploy only the most efficient of such initiatives.

People often write about 'intractable' ethnic, religious, or territorial conflicts. But these conflicts do fizzle out and then it's apparent that the conflicts were not so intractable after all. The borders between England and Scotland, or England and Wales, are pretty quiet these days. Historical grievances, and notions of fairness or justice, loom large and play a part in perpetuating conflict. But not inevitably. People get tired; the old paradigms die with the idealogues that kept them going; deals are done, compromises made, other events assume greater importance, while time heals. Middle East Peace Bonds could accelerate all these processes. They could channel the wishes of the majority of ordinary people in the Middle East and beyond into the attainment of peace in the region. Incentives matter.