22 September 2007

Trumping ideology

Reviewing Super Crunchers, by Ian Ayres, the Economist (dated 13 September)says:
The sheer quantity of data and the computer power now available make it possible for automated processes to surpass human experts in fields as diverse as rating wines, writing film dialogue and choosing titles for books.

Even the occasional government is accepting that properly analysed data trump ideological conviction. Mr Ayres sings the praises of Mexico's Progresa/Oportunidades programme, which gave assistance to poor people only if their children attended health clinics and schools. It was tried out on 506 randomly selected villages. The results were so convincing that the programme was expanded 100-fold despite a change of government.
The merit, it seems to me of such a policy approach is that unsuccessful experiments will be terminated: it's genuinely Policy as if Outcomes Mattered.

No comments: