12 March 2005

Why Kyoto will fail

Despite a decade of research documenting the carbon emissions from man-made reservoirs, hydroelectric power still has an undeserved reputation for mitigating global warming. Hydroelectric power's dirty secret revealed, Duncan Graham-Rowe, 'New Scientist', 25 February 2005.

It’s been known for some time that hydroelectric dams can increase greenhouse gas emissions: they produce significant amounts of carbon dioxide and methane - in some cases more of than power plants running on fossil fuels. But only now is this fact making it onto the political agenda. In the next round of IPCC discussions in 2006, the proposed National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, which calculates each country's carbon budget, will include emissions from artificially flooded regions. But even then "[m]ethane production will go unchecked because climate scientists cannot agree on how significant this is".

Our knowledge of the causes of climate change is limited, but expanding rapidly. We urgently need a way responsive way of dealing with climate change that adapts rapidly to our changing knowledge. Climate Stability Bonds would differ from Kyoto, in that they would not assume that we know the best way of solving the problem. They would reward the achievement of climate stability, however it is achieved. Bondholders would have incentives to respond quickly and appropriately to new knowledge about what is causing climate change and to new ways of dealing with it.

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