Why we must target outcomes

Madeleine Cuff writes:

Levels of hydrogen in the atmosphere have jumped by 60 per cent since pre-industrial times, underscoring the dramatic impact fossil fuel burning has had on the planet's atmospheric composition. Although hydrogen isn't a greenhouse gas, it has an indirect warming effect through reactions with other molecules. Atmospheric hydrogen is rising, which may be a problem for the climate, Madeleine Cuff, New Scientist, 19 September 2025 (my emphasis)

'[H]ydrogen isn't a greenhouse gas' means that it's not been targeted for reduction, as have carbon dioxide, methane and others - and that is exactly why we need to be targeting outcomes, rather than ways that we currently think might help achieve them. Our scientific knowledge is expanding rapidly: we didn't know that hydrogen has a warming effect, and still less do we know which are - and which will be - the best ways to address climate change. To repeat: we need to be targeting outcomes. I suggest that our desired outcome should be a combination of physical, biological, financial and social variables, all of which will have to fall within approved ranges for a sustained period before we can say that we've achieved our climate goal. The focus must be on the desired outcome; current policies are incapable of adapting to our growing knowledge of the climate and its impacts on human, animal and plant life. 

Climate Stability Bonds would be one way of encouraging approaches that adapt to our growing scientific knowledge about the causes, and effects of climate change on our environment. A wide array of approaches will be necessary, and the focus will need to be on more than gas emissions, more than the composition of the atmosphere. By targeting desired outcomes, the bonds would stimulate diverse approaches, and reward people for achieving them. Many of our environmental and social problems are too complex and long term to be targeted by policies that depend on ossified science. Social Policy Bonds, by targeting outcomes, would stimulate the diverse, adaptive approaches that we need to achieve them.